Analysis

Do 75% of Scores really come from Inside the D?

In an interview just after Roscommon dumped Mayo out of the 2023 Connacht Championship Davy Burke was describing his team’s defensive set-up and said that “70-75% of scores come from inside the D”. Managers are likely no different to the rest of the population in reaching for a stat when trying to make a pont. The validity or accuracy of said stat is not the point, the principle is it helps with the argument, it’s a perfectly natural thing to do. 

But is he right? And even if he’s wrong, how wrong is he? 

As ever there is still some subjectivity required in this analysis of the data. Where exactly is inside the D and do we count all shots or just shots from play? The point is not to take Davy Burke’s comment entirely at face value but let’s examine how close he was based on some definitions of inside the D and looking at only shots from play. 

I’m using a rectangle that covers the top of the D to the goal-line as illustrated below.

First let’s take a broad look at shooting accuracy from inside and outside the D. As a good rule of thumb the further away from the goal you get the less likely you are to score.

No surprise that players on average score at a higher % rate from inside the D v’s outside. ~6 out of every 10 shots from play result in a score from inside compared to just 4 successful shots from outside the D. So far so obvious.

But what about the % of scores that come from inside the D. Looking at over 10,000 scores across the last 12 Championship seasons, the average is not 75% but closer to 44%. When we look at this on a season by season the number is not vastly different since 2011. It’s been as low as 40% and last year saw a high of 48% but this all looks very consistent year to year.

I know my definitions might differ from others on only including scores from play and where exactly the scoring zone is but I think we can reasonably call this 75% stats as not accurate. In fact over the last 12 seasons more scores from play come from outside the D than inside it. 

I know I’m calling this 75% as not accurate, but the sentiment is obviously correct. We can take a slightly extreme example to make this point. A team gets on average 21 shots from play per game (again this is frighteningly consistent across the last 12 seasons) and we know that the closer you are to goal the more likely you are to score. 

To take our very binary inside/outside the D analysis; if a team took all of their 20 shots from outside the D they would score on average 8 times (and almost certainly no goals). By contrast taking those same 20 shots inside the D should yield you 12 scores, a 50% increase before you factor in any goals. Across a season the more you restrict shots from inside you are building a nice edge in your favour and as the successful teams will play more games in this new format, the higher the impact these edges can have across your season. It’s really no wonder teams defend the D like its sacrosanct turf, but heartening to know that if you attend a game you will still see more points scored from outside the D than you think.

Gaelic Football Viz to help you compare forwards from different era’s. Who has scored them quicker?

For an age the talk has been to push up or not on Cluxton’s kickouts. Regardless of what you would like to do, the practicality of doing it is another thing altogether.

TV angles don’t usually allow you pick up the movement of the outfield players but there was one great example of just how quickly Cluxton and Co switch on for their own Kickout.

Kerry take a shot (from open play). So this isn’t an opportunity for either side to plan a move.

As the ball is still in the air, in fact it’s only barely left the Kerry foot before Cluxton reaches down to get the second ball.

It’s no use of Cluxton is the only one thinking like this. But he’s not. As you can see the ball is still in the air. Cluxton comes out with his head up looking for the runs and it’s Ciaran Reddin in this case who has already set-off.

Notice as well that the Dubs are great at getting out of the way to make that pocket of space bigger for the runner.

It’s 6 seconds from the ball leaving the Kerry foot until Cluxton kicks the ball out.

Even with 10 men in shot, the speed of thought and precision of execution makes it so difficult to compete.

Training age is the cumulative amount of time you’ve spent training for a particular sport. It refers to a cumulative workload (and skill level) built over years and years.

This of course is not just about time. I’ve been driving for 16 years and I’ve seen very little improvement. You need to be in and around environments that push you, have coaches or mentors that test you constantly to evolve and get better.

As a player moves from club to county the premise is that he is now exposed to better coaches, surrounded by better players in training and playing a higher standard of opposition. All of these factors should contribute to a player and team’s development.

To bridge the performance gap teams started to put in more hours. Early morning training and extra sessions were a plenty. But there are only so many hours in the day. Counties are finally realising that more does not necessarily equal better. Now there is more emphasis on talent both on the pitch and behind the scenes.

This week Andy McEntee highlighted the importance he placed on having his preferred Strength and Conditioning coach as part of, not just his management ticket, but the entire Meath set-up.

“To be perfectly honest, it was part of the gig when I came in. I would have been reluctant to do it without him, that is how much I regard him.”

He is now fulfilling a role similar to Bryan Cullen for Dublin or Cathal Cregg for Connacht. You can expect many other counties to follow suit, counties employing expertise to work across an entire system rather than on a nod and a wink from the senior manager.

It highlights the importance of getting the right people in behind the scenes. But the nature of the competition structure builds in a constant disadvantage. Successful teams play more games and by extension have longer seasons (under expert supervision).

Last season as we mentioned Dublin began their competitive season in January and ended it in October. Wicklow were out by the middle of June.

What is startling when you look at the actual figures, the cumulative effect of shorter seasons means there is a built in sense of the inevitable about the inter-county scene.

Even if the much maligned county board could stump up to hire all the ologists possible, unless teams start winning and making their season longer it’s hard to see them ever catching the big guys.

The table below shows the week each county has finished their season in for the last 10. For example in 2016 Dublin & Mayo finished in week 40 while a team like Down finished a full 14 weeks previously.

Taking an average of just 3 training sessions a week that’s at least 42 training sessions. Even if you said the backroom teams of these two counties were of equal quality (and that’s an unrealistic assumption) that’s a lot more expert-led training those Dublin players have over Down. Starting the 2017 season Dublin are at least 42 sessions and 7 games ahead of Down, all other things being equal.

When we add this up over the course of say 10 years we can see that Kerry and Dublin average a season of about 36 weeks while mid-tier teams like Armagh, Kildare & Roscommon have seasons lasting just 29 weeks.

That’s on average about 7 weeks per year which is over 200 extra training sessions in a 10 year period. (again assuming our 3 sessions a week measure)

Build in the squad turnover most teams outside of Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin and Kerry have and you can see a huge discrepancy open up between the have’s and have not’s.

It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Whether winning causes more stable squads or vice-versa the net result is the same. Winning teams have longer seasons, with more stable squads, usually under expert led coaching staff.

I had this conversation recently with a manager from a weaker county. There were the usual grievances about receiving a more level playing field in terms of financing but what really transpired was that without extending the season (games and time) his players would file back to the clubs where the structures just aren’t there to keep the development going.

I’m no believer that we should create an artificial method to get weaker teams into the semi-finals. Any competition should be about getting the best to play each other but the different season length has a big impact on the ability of the weaker counties to make up the difference, even if the funding is in place.

Staying alive in the championship has many upsides (not least you might actual win something) but not to be underestimated is the amount of training time these players receive or more importantly the weaker county players miss out on. Having additional games is vital but if the actual season length allows for such large discrepancies it’s hard to see teams making those giant leaps forward.

Historic League Tables 2008 – 2017

Check out the form of any county over the previous 35 games. You can use the filter to look at Championship, League or both.

Check out how each county has performed against every other county.

Prior to the league final there was little doubt that the Div 1 final was pitting the two form teams in the country against each other. They are the most recent all Ireland finalists, #’s 1 & 2 in the Division and both had impressive 10-point win’s in their respective semi-finals.

Kerry were on a 6 game unbeaten run, which is impressive, but far inferior when compared to Dublin’s league and Championship run at the time of 21 games unbeaten (now 24).
After a slow start Kerry have really hit their strides in the league. They boasted the 2nd best defensive record in Division 1 and were just a point off Roscommon in being top scorers at the other end. People will never tire of taking pics of the ‘traditional’ teams with 14 & 15 men behind the ball, but the best teams are adaptable. Both Dublin and Kerry played without a full-time sweeper in the first half of their semi-final’s, but when playing against a strong breeze and with a lead to protect Aidan O’Mahony and Cian O’Sullivan stayed at home. I think the best teams have the ability to adapt to what’s in front of them rather than go in with a complete script of how they are going to play.

A few months on from the league final and many people will have pushed Dublin even further ahead of Kerry  both teams have yet to be tested and Sunday may not offer any clues to where Kerry are but below are a few thoughts in what we saw from Kerry in the league and some weaknesses Tipp might try to exploit

Donaghy

Kerry’s use of Kieran Donaghy will be interesting to watch as the season progresses. Although playing much more of a role in midfield throughout the league, especially for kickouts, he is not afraid to drift into the full-forward line when appropriate.
In this example we can see Kerry have just won the ball from a Roscommon Kickout. As the play develops Donaghy makes his way in to the full forward line.

Perhaps spotting a mis-match or that Roscommon are slow in getting a sweeper in place. He finds himself behind the Roscommon defenders and there is now a 3 v 3 situation inside. It’s a fantastic pass to pick him out.

Not only does he field the high ball but as he lays it off you will see how well he screens the players and makes the scoring opportunity even easier.

By simply holding his ground after laying off the pass he manages to occupy 3 Roscommon defenders.

Kieran Donaghy will no doubt have license to get himself into these situations when the opportunity arises, regardless of where he is named on the team sheet.

Kick Passing

When we look at the stats over the league season Kerry don’t kick pass it the most (that prize goes to Dublin) and they are also not the most accurate (Donegal) but I think Kerry will be happy with those numbers. There is a danger in aiming for perfect, in that you never try anything that might open a defence. Paralysis by Analysis is often quoted, and sometimes that can be right. Teams need to be less obsessed with possession counts and passing % and look at how often players made the best decision with what was in front of them. Sometimes the risk is worth the possible turnover.
Kerry seem to have a good balance, where players like David Moran or Bryan Sheehan are not hauled off for giving away possession once or twice. They are free to play balls in and the Kerry management seem happy with the risk.
Take this example from the semi-final v’s Roscommon. Injury time is almost up at the end of the 1st half. Bryan Sheehan, not content to play out the half, takes a quick sideline ball and gets the ball back.

With pressure on and time running out you would forgive Sheehan for turning back and keeping possession with a simple hand pass. However clearly unburdened by possession % stats he tries an ambitious kick pass.

This is not Donaghy or Tommy Walsh he is trying to hit here but rather Darran O’Sullivan, who has no support at all. There is a large slice of luck involved and the defender gets his timing all wrong, but the point remains, how many teams and players look at that situation inside and are paralysed by losing possession and simply turn back and play an easy hand-pass.

Instead the ball breaks and O’Sullivan slots in Kerry’s 3rd goal and puts any chance of a 2nd half comeback beyond doubt.

Running at Kerry

One weakness Kerry do show is when they are attacked straight down the middle. The 2 goals they conceded against Dublin and the 1 against Monaghan are prime examples.
From a short kickout that actually lands inside Monaghan’s 21, they eventually get to half-way. This is by no means a fast attack and Kerry should have plenty of time to set-up defensively.

Kieran Hughes just puts the head down and runs straight at the Kerry midfield and defence. Kerry seem like they have the numbers in place but Ryan McAnespie just ghost through as if they are not there.

He breaks through 3 tackles on his way to set-up what is a very soft goal to concede.

The two Dublin goals (regular season) will also worry Kerry, we will just take a look a the second goal they conceded that night. Aidan O’Mahony didn’t play and his presence at the heart of the defence was missed.

James McCarthy picks the ball up in midfield. Keep an eye as we step through this firstly how costly a momentary lapse in concentration is for Johnny Buckley but also how little cover is inside for Kerry.

Dublin have a great attacking shape here. 2 Men wide and 1 on the D. It’s a great kick pass that forces the last Kerry defender to come out from in front of the goal. As the Dublin player on the far wings holds his position it leaves an enormous gap down the middle. Buckley is 5 yards off and because there is no cover there is real danger.

As the pass is played to McCarthy you can see how open Kerry are. Without some sort of sweeper (permanent or roving) this is the danger of man v man defence. A well timed kick pass coupled with a well organised attacking unit will exploit these gaps.
As I mentioned at the top of the piece Aidan O’Mahony spent the entire second half of the semi-final camped at sweeper never venturing very far. Maybe they won’t need that type of cover against Tipp on Sunday, but come Agust someone will be filling that role for Kerry.